Archive for November, 2006

Risk mapping & politique

Comment mener une cartographie des risques en politique ? Une problématique digne de recherche car si la cartographie des risques est clairement un élément important de politique économique et étrangère, il est tout à fait utile de savoir si les outils du risk mapping et plus loin encore du risk management peuvent s’appliquer à un univers complexe, imprévisible et souvent mal maîtrisé que peut être la politique. Posons tout de suite une question de choix : qui peut être le commanditaire d’un tel travail ?


Développement : où est le risque ?

“Risques, danger de sinistre et sinistre dans la coopération internationale au développement”. Tel est l’intitulé actuel dans ma thèse sur les problèmes des mécanismes actuels de coopération internationale au développement et spécialement sur les problèmes des projets de réforme institutionnelle. Bientôt vous connaîtrez mes hypothèses théoriques, de travail et mon modèle d’analyse.

Cause-Consequence Analysis

Cause-consequence analysis ( CCA ) is a blend of fault tree and event tree analysis. This technique combines cause analysis ( described by fault trees ) and consequence analysis (described by event trees), and hence deductive and inductive analysis is used. The purpose of CCA is to identify chains of events that can result in undesirable consequences. With the probabilities of the various events in the CCA diagram, the probabilities of the various consequences can be calculated, thus establishing the risk level of the system.

This technique was invented by RISO Laboratories in Denmark to be used in risk analysis of nuclear power stations. However, it can also be adapted by the other industries in the estimation of the safety of a protective or other systems. Details on how to carry out cause consequence analysis as well as the benefits and restrictions of it are documented in literature.

Return on Investment ( ROI ) analysis

Return on Investment (ROI) analysis is one of several approaches to building a financial business case. The term means that decision makers evaluate the investment by comparing the magnitude and timing of expected gains to the investment costs.

Decision makers will also look for ways to improve ROI by reducing costs, increasing gains, or accelerating gains.

In the last few decades, this approach has been applied to asset purchase decisions (computer systems or a fleet of vehicles, for example), “go/no-go” decisions for programs of all kinds (including marketing programs, recruiting programs, and training programs), and to more traditional investment decisions (such as the management of stock portfolios or the use of venture capital).

Planification stratégique

Plans à long terme fondés sur les objectifs d’affaires globaux de l’organisation. Les plans stratégiques sont habituellement pluriannuels et portent sur 5 ou 10 ans (ou davantage) en se servant de scénarios ou d’autres méthodes de planification qui identifient les hypothèses, risques et les facteurs environnementaux.

Approche multidimensionnelle

Une approche de l’évaluation des risques qui examine le risque et la possibilité par l’intermédiaire de divers horizons prévisionnels ou dimensions telle la manifestation de la même incertitude. Cette approche constitue la meilleure approximation de la planification stratégique des cadres supérieurs.

Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis

The cost in terms of dollars, hazards, and/or schedule delays from potential failures is a significant concern in product development. Documenting the intended use, the system and software requirements and the hazards associated with a product/system aids in eliminating or mitigating undesired effects caused by failures. A Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) identifies and offers solutions to potential failures. A product FMECA identifies the hazardous event, the cause, the method of control, and the corrective action. A software FMECA identifies similar information for each software component/function. Corrective actions include fail-safe mechanisms, redundant controls, error-handling routines, fault-tolerance, alarms, testing activities and documentation warnings. Software safety requirements implemented to eliminate, minimize, or warn of a specific hazard that should be traceable through the FMECA.

Analex follows a systems approach to performing FMECA utilizing our extensive hardware and software engineering knowledge. Multiple analyses are used in determining the type of testing required for a particular system. A Criticality Analysis reveals areas of the system that are vital to the safety of the product. The Failure Mode Analysis identifies the ramifications which would result in the event of potential failures. The Criticality and Failure Modes Analysis results are combined into a Response Analysis which determines how to best mitigate the effects of each potential failure.

Security Goals

The five security goals are integrity, availability, confidentiality,accountability, and assurance.

Due Care

Managers and their organizations have a duty to provide for information security to ensure that the type of control, the cost of control, and the deployment of control are appropriate for the system being managed.

Safety Management Organization Review Technique ( SMORT )

Safety management organization review technique(SMORT)is a simplified modification of MORT developed in Scandinavia. This technique is structured by means of analysis levels with associated checklists, while MORT is based on a comprehensive tree structure. Owing to its structured analytical process, SMORT is classified as one of the tree based methodologies. The SMORT analysis includes data collection based on the checklists and their associated questions, in addition to evaluation of results. The information can be collected from interviews, studies of documents and investigations. This technique can be used to perform detailed investigation of accidents and near misses. It also served well as a method for safety audits and planning of safety measures.